In 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has brought the false energy dilemma into high relief. Everyone is concerned with finding a new balance between affordability, security, and sustainability. The urgent need for gas and oil is for as much of each as possible, as soon as feasible. However, the urge for a rapid transition away from hydrocarbons persists over the longer term.
Oil and gas businesses have faced the same rather paradoxical problem for the last five years. The crisis of 2022 has created new possibilities for Majors, Independents, and NOCs, but it has also intensified the difficulty and hazards.
Oil and gas corporations are recalibrating their strategy, setting the stage for an eventful year. In this research, we identify five major themes and a few wildcards.
As deleveraging progresses more slowly, the dynamics of capital allocation will change.
In 2023, the oil and gas industry will have substantially completed the disinvestment phase of the present cycle. A select set of corporations will strive for zero net debt to fortify their balance sheets. In 2023, more highly leveraged players will attain their ideal condition, especially if oil prices continue over US$80/bbl.
The industry will have the unparalleled financial fortitude to withstand another price decline. Could a new yearly record be set for buybacks? Will more players widen the investment gap? Who is in the best position to transition to single-digit growth?
Continued restructuring of gas and oil portfolios
Oil and gas companies will continue investing in supply security while highlighting their accomplishments in decarbonization. Emissions intensity will be decreased via improved efficiency, upstream electrification, carbon capture, and high-quality nature-based offsets. The prevalence of net-zero greenfield projects will increase, albeit they will rely substantially on offsets.
In addition, is this the year when carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) becomes commonplace?
Accelerating the transition to renewable energy
The Majors will begin a new era of low-carbon energy development. Government assistance, particularly the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and RepowerEU, will be mitigated by expanding competition, supply chain issues, permission restrictions, and grid-access limitations.
The green hydrogen industry confronts a key year in which it must separate hype from reality.
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